UNAIDS reduces estimate of global HIV prevalence to 33 million

Source: AIDSMAP

Edwin J. Bernard, Tuesday, November 20, 2007

The global prevalence of HIV has fallen to an estimated 33.2 million, according to new data released today by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the World Health Organization (WHO) in their annual AIDS epidemic update. The decline largely reflects changes in the way that HIV prevalence is estimated, UNAIDS says.

Their data also suggest that global HIV incidence has fallen to 2.5 million from a peak of 3 million in the late 1990s, and the number of people dying from AIDS-related illnesses – estimated at 2.1 million – has also declined as a result of the impact of ARV treatment programmes.

“Unquestionably, we are beginning to see a return on investment,” notes UNAIDS Executive Director Dr Peter Piot. “New HIV infections and mortality are declining and the prevalence of HIV levelling. But with more than 6,800 new infections and over 5,700 deaths each day due to AIDS we must expand our efforts in order to significantly reduce the impact of AIDS worldwide.”

New methodologies, revised data
UNAIDS says that the latest figures reflect “improved and expanded epidemiological data and analyses that present a better understanding of the global epidemic.”

UNAIDS, WHO and the Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections comprehensively reviewed their methodologies and monitoring systems to provide epidemic estimates that reflect improvements in country data collection and analysis, as well as a better understanding of the natural history and distribution of HIV infection.

In addition, new assumptions have also been made as a result of a better understanding of the natural history of untreated HIV infection. Notably, the average number of years that people living with HIV are estimated to survive without treatment has been increased from nine to eleven years. This longer average survival period has resulted in lower estimates of new HIV infections and deaths due to AIDS. (...)

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The UNAIDS report, AIDS epidemic update: December 2007, is available here. There's also a print copy in the library.